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Evidential decision theory : ウィキペディア英語版
Evidential decision theory
Evidential decision theory is a school of thought within decision theory according to which the best action is the one which, conditional on your having chosen it, gives you the best expectations for the outcome. It contrasts with causal decision theory, which requires a causal connection between your actions and the desirable outcome.
==Description==

In a 1981 article, Allan Gibbard and William Harper characterized evidential decision theory as maximization of the expected utility V of an action A "calculated from conditional probabilities":
:
V(A)=\sum\limits_ P(O_j | A) D(O_j),

where D(O_j) is the desirability of outcome O_j and P(O_j | A) is the conditional probability of O_j given A.

抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)
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